Early estimation of high peritoneal permeability can predict poor prognosis for technique survival in patients on peritoneal dialysis.

At the beginning of continuous ambulatory peritoneal dialysis (CAPD), different patients exhibit large differences in peritoneal permeability. To determine if early estimation of peritoneal permeability can predict the prognosis of CAPD, we used data from a personal dialysis capacity (PDC) study group in Japan to investigate patient and technique survival rates. Based on the data from a previously reported, prospective multicenter study encompassing eight dialysis centers in Japan (Am J Kidney Dis 2002; 40:1045-54), we recalculated patient and technique survival data. We reviewed the records of 139 patients newly initiated on CAPD from January 1995 to December 1999. Peritoneal permeability was estimated by PDC test within the first year after initiation. We divided the patients into paired groups according to several peritoneal permeability variables as calculated by the PDC test (area, plasma loss, and peritoneal creatinine clearance), and we compared patient and technique survival rate between the groups. The mean age of the patients was 49.6 years +/- 14.9 years (standard deviation). The mean pore area of peritoneum was 19,936 +/- 8383 cm/1.73 m2. Estimation of patient survival by the Kaplan-Meier method showed 94.2%, 88.4%, 84.1%, and 79.7% at 1, 2, 3, and 5 years respectively. Estimated technique survival (including death as an endpoint) by the Kaplan-Meier method showed 90.6%, 76.8%, 67.4%, and 54.3% at 1, 2, 3, and 5 years respectively. In the high peritoneal permeability group (high area and high plasma loss), the technique survival at 5 years was significantly lower than in the low peritoneal permeability group [area: 55.9% (high) vs. 72.7% (low), p = 0.0459; plasma loss: 43.3% (high) vs. 62.8% (low), p = 0.0197). We observed no significant difference in patient survival between the high and low peritoneal permeability patients. In the high peritoneal creatinine clearance group, patient and technique survival were both significantly lower than in the high peritoneal creatinine clearance group. Patients with high peritoneal permeability as calculated by the PDC test at the start of PD had a poor prognosis for technique and patient survival on CAPD. We conclude that early estimation of high peritoneal permeability can predict poor outcome for patients on CAPD.